A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions.
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the hours before Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended.
One account, which registered on the site last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Trading information shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.
However the odds had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity immediately prior to the social media post was made.
"That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," stated an industry expert.
A small number of other platform users also made significant sums from similar wagers.
Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.
A bill introduced on Monday seeks to ban public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.
Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs.
Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.
Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market space.
A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."
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